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You’ll usually see on the board or the Internet the game quoted as
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Gambling on Sports, What Are the Odds?| Chicago | -5 1/2 -180 1:00 pm | Atlanta | +5 1/2 +150 42 1/2 |
This tells you that the money line is at –180 and +150, the point spread is at –5 ½ and +5 1/2, and the total points for the game is at 42 1/2. It also tells you that Atlanta is the home team, and the game starts at 1:00 pm.
The Vig or the Juice
Vig: is short for “vigorish.” The “vig” or the “juice,” is the fee gamblers must pay the bookie every time they wager. When two people make a private bet between themselves, each person puts up an equal amount, say my $10 against your $10. Bookies typically require that their customers bet $11 to win $10. The money on the losing side goes to pay the winners and the bookmaker keeps the $1 vig. At 11-10 odds, the industry standard, bettors must select winners 52.4% percent of the time to break even.
Who Sets the Betting Odds for Sporting Events?
Sportsbooks hire oddsmakers to determine the initial "fair" line, a line that will generate approximately equal action. The line is set by highly paid consultants in Las Vegas and the Caribbean, who weight the strengths of the teams and the public’s perception of those strengths. Ideally, the line is set so that half of the bets win and half of the bets lose. This number then changes moment by moment, depending on which team is drawing more action. The line improves on teams getting less action and worsen on teams getting more action. Again, this is done largely at the discretion of the bookmakers, who typically use computer systems to alert them of the current status and what should be done to the line. The sports books are bookmakers. As money flows in they adjust their line accordingly. Sometimes they lay off bets on other bookies or casinos to even out the money bet with them.
Key Games, Added Games and Circled Games
A key game is a game with strong interest, usually televised nationally and bet heavily by all levels of gamblers, from the casual to the professional. Monday Night Football is a Key Game.
Added games are games of interest only to a small group of hometown fans, with few betters, and no television coverage. Sharp gamblers will be drawn to these games if the line is weak.
Circled games have had the betting limit lowered to half of the customary limit, or less. A circle is actually drawn around these games on the board. Games are circled when a key player may not make the lineup, or other game facts are uncertain.
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula to calculate how large the gambler’s bet should be for optimal results. The criterion says that if an aggressive gambler has a 1% advantage, he should bet 1% of his bankroll. To play more conservatively, most professional gamblers apply half Kelly or quarter Kelly to their wagering decisions. This provides a margin of security against a total wipeout.
What is RFB?
RFB stands for free Room, Food and Beverages. It is the full range of complimentary services a casino might offer a guest who is a heavy better and a desirable customer. Comps also can include free shows, limousines, room service and entrance to VIP events like boxing matches and private parties. The casino airplane may also be available for high-stakes gamblers. Naturally the size and frequency of your bets determines the value of the comps a casino will offer.
Send-out
The Send-out is the starting point spread. It is suggested by line-making services in Las Vegas and the Caribbean. Bookmakers use the send-out to determine their opening numbers. The send-out for the week’s football games usually occurs late Sunday afternoon, after the Sunday games are finished. It is literally sent out via computer and fax to subscribers. By the time the line is published in newspapers Monday morning, it has already been heavily bet by eager beavers in Las Vegas and offshore.
Smart Money
The “smart money” are the gamblers in a well-informed betting syndicate. They work with sophisticated information on game statistics, injuries, weather and psychological factors, massaged by powerful computers that do the number-crunching. Having determined a more accurate point spread than the bookmakers, syndicates wager enormous sums and can move the spread just by betting on a game. Gamblers try to find the smart money and ride its coattails. Bookies fear and despise the smart money.
Squares
The square is the average unsophisticated gambler whose decision-making is based on hunches, sentiment and media chatter or casual betting systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage. It is no wonder that bookies welcome squares with open arms.
The Whale and the Wiseguy
The whale is a huge bettor. A whale is generally the best customer at the casino or bookmaker, the high-rolling, money-means-nothing-to-me bon vivant who craves action and attention more than long-term profits. The criteria vary from casino to casino, but whales generally have $1 million lines of credit or more.
The wiseguy is someone who bets with or for the smart money. Wiseguys generally find the best point spreads and wager on the most profitable teams. Since these sophisticated gamblers seldom make bad bets and seldom play hunches, wiseguys win in the long run. Bookies intensely dislike wiseguys.
The Bookie Business
Traditionally, the bookie takes no risk. Theoretically, it is the gamblers who take the risk and the bookie collects the 4.5% vig, the fee for being a matchmaker or clearinghouse. If the line is accurate, half of the betters will choose each side of the gamble. Half will go for the favorite and half for the underdog in the game, and the winners will be paid with the losers’ money. Usually, you will bet $11 for the opportunity to win $10. If you win, you take home $21. If you lose, someone else has won, and the bookie will pay out $10 of your bet to the winner and keep $1 for himself.
In reality, however, bookmakers attempt to maximize their bottom line. While having an exactly equal amount of money wagered on each contestant would guarantee themselves a profit and eliminate their risk, that won't necessarily maximize their bottom line. They can make more money if they raise the line higher than usual for games with a strong favorites and unsophisticated bettors who will bet no matter the price.This is called "shading" the line. Some bookmakers actually offer different prices to different customers, using their customer history to predict which side the customer will take.
Gambling on Sports is Big Business
Sports gambling brings a bigger audience to televised sports. TV announcers don’t usually mention the point spread while the game is underway, but they might make a euphemistic reference to it, as in “Duke is up by 22 points, but there’s still some business to be decided.” The pending business is that Duke hasn’t covered the point spread.
Betting on sports is big business. It’s a surreal universe, where a “dime” means a thousand dollar bet. A lot of the numbers are never reported to the public, but experts estimate that the bookmakers who take the bets gross billions of dollars a year. Probably only the illegal drug trade takes in more money.
In the long run, almost nobody can beat “the line.” The only way to make a million dollars gambling on sports is to wager $1,100,000.
I hope life brings you much success. I wish you a very happy day.
----- Surfer Sam
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